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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Continued transport of smoke into Colorado, possibly increasing through the weekend ahead, 7/18/24

 Clockwise flow around high pressure anchored over the 4-corners area will continue to support the transport of smoke from wildfires in the northwestern U.S. In addition to this, a trough digging into the Midwest will create a corridor of upper level winds moving north-to-south along the greater Rocky Mountains over the weekend. 


Weather model forecast map of upper level winds shows winds moving southward from Canada and toward Colorado at noon MST on Saturday July 20, 2024. A large red arrow shows the path of travel along the Rocky Mountains into Colorado. Text in the upper right corner reads GFS 500 wind speed, valid 2024--7-20 18Z.
Image of GFS 500mb winds on Saturday, July 20th, 2024, courtesy Weathernerds.org.
    

This pattern is expected to continue the hazy skies and light concentrations of fine particulates that have been seen already, and may gradually increase impacts on air quality by next week. If the north-to-south transport that models are hinting at comes together, there is potential for significant degradation of conditions through the weekend, and into next week.

A computer model forecast of smoke at all levels of the atmosphere shows widespread smoke throughout the northwestern and central U.S, with heavy smoke moving south from Canada. Text at the top reads: vertically integrated smoke, HRRR-NCEP, Valid time 20240720, 18UTC
Image courtesy of NOAA NCEP.

Surface impacts that may result from the upper level transport currently remain uncertain, however there is potential for increasing levels of smoke (fine particulates) throughout Colorado. Updates will continue to be provided as things evolve and expectations become more clear.

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