As is often the case in Colorado, especially during the ups-and-downs that come with fall weather in our state, the weekend ahead offers a mixed bag of pros and cons with regard to smoke. Smoke and fire models have been somewhat overplaying fire activity, but also mildly underestimating particulate concentrations; making it difficult to put too much confidence in the results that they produce.
Weather models have a bit more agreement in terms of wind and temperature patterns, however that too ushers conflicting expectations. Saturday looks to have above average temperatures, low humidity, and breezy to gusty winds. These conditions heighten concerns for fire danger. This may not mean too much in Colorado due to the pleasant lack of fire activity in our state (barring any new starts, of course). Yet the same conditions are likely to affect neighboring states like Wyoming and Utah, so the same breezy winds and good atmospheric mixing that may help to decrease the smoke that is currently lingering in pocketed areas along the Front Range may also usher in smoke from those fires that are active elsewhere, upwind from us.
A cool front looks to arrive late on Saturday and may help to lower temperatures a bit, however it will also limit vertical mixing and decrease the dispersion of any lingering smoke from transport on Saturday. Gradual warming on Monday and Tuesday will be caused by the persistence of a ridging pattern in the southwest U.S., yet may also be conducive to continued transport of smoke into our region.
The good news in all of this is that the overall concentrations of fine particulates have remained in the Good or low-Moderate range of the AQI scale, and appear to persist in a similar fashion. The takeaway message here is that while we cannot rule out some influence of smoke on our air quality, no significant impacts are expected.
As always, we will keep an eye on things and put forth any pertinent information that arises.
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