Smoke impacts due to the 24 Fire, located on Fort Carson in south-central Colorado, will continue to be highly variable on Thursday and into Friday. Winds on Thursday have come mainly from the west. Winds are expected to remain breezy and gusty on Thursday afternoon and into the overnight period, however the direction will change as a cooler air mass moves in from the east. This has several implications for fire behavior and smoke impacts.
First, fire behavior may increase once again on Thursday, as was seen on Wednesday, during the warm and dry afternoon. This could increase smoke production, but may also will help with dispersion as atmospheric lift moves much of the smoke vertically away from the surface, and winds help to dissipate concentrations. The west-to-east transport will also limit impacts from smoke in areas of Fremont County, such as Penrose, Florence, and Cañon City.
The second change that we anticipate is a shift in the wind direction this evening, with winds switching to come from the east. This will move smoke in the opposite direction, and toward the above mentioned communities. As the winds shift, the air will cool as the sun goes down, and as cooler air is transported into the region. This will decrease lift in the atmosphere, and smoke may stay closer to ground level. This may create periods of smoke and haze, particularly in areas closest to the fire. Though the shift in wind direction may increase smoke in neighboring communities, breezy and gusty conditions will help to limit overall smoke concentrations.
The third change that is expected is an increase in relative humidity and chances for precipitation. The cool, moist airmass that is incoming will assist in decreasing fire behavior and smoke production. Higher humidity values will remain in the area, and as winds decrease a bit on Friday also, fire behavior is expected to be dampened.
The take-away message from all of this is: changes are coming, so folks in areas near the 24 Fire should remain prepared to protect their health during any smoke episodes that may be experienced, but also know that these periods of impact are expected to be relatively short lived.
As of this writing (3 pm on 3/26/26) an Air Quality Health Advisory is not anticipated. CDPHE forecasters are watching as all of this unfolds, and will respond with messaging and alerts if they become necessary. As always, our goal is to communicate our expectations so that folks can make informed decisions on what is the right action to take, and when.
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