We continue to watch several fires burning within Colorado borders, and will continue with updates on expectations arising from those incidents. However it is a large fire in northwestern Nebraska that has gained attention on Wednesday.
The South Fork fire is located to the Nebraska panhandle, north of Scotts Bluff, NE, just east of the Wyoming State line. The fire is currently reported at approximately 9,000 acres, but is showing active behavior and will likely gain in size throughout the day on Wednesday.
Smoke is expected to move to the east of the fire throughout the day on Wednesday. However a shift in wind direction taking place on Thursday looks to transport smoke into Colorado beginning Thursday afternoon and evening. The greatest impacts from smoke are most likely in northeastern portions of Colorado, potentially extending south and west overnight Thursday and into Friday.
Weather and fire behavior/smoke models have revealed disagreement with the timing and organization of winds, and uncertainty remains in exactly how much smoke will arrive in Colorado, when, and how far into our state it will travel. The two images below show the same time (6 UTC, 12 am MDT, midnight Thursday night), with forecasts from different runs from the same model. This shows the significant variation in impacts from smoke that comes from one model run to the next, highlighting the uncertainty in expected outcome.
Images showing differing impacts from different model runs, due to smoke in northeastern Colorado at midnight Thursday night. Images courtesy of HRRR-Smoke model.
We will continue to monitor the fire and smoke as this situation develops, and will provide updates on expectations. However, folks in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties (and surrounding areas) should consider taking precautions to avoid smoke exposure, including limiting outdoor activity Thursday evening, and into Friday morning.
Additional info about avoiding smoke exposure and potential health impacts can be found via the Health Information tab at the top of this page.
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